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Social-Economic Effects

Title: Cost of Hurricane Warnings
Contributors: Florida International University (Dario Moreno, Jeff Czajkowski)
NOAA Facilitators: Ed Rappaport and Chris Landsea
Objectives: In a 40-year period ending in 1992, hurricanes accounted for two thirds of weather-related losses in the U.S. Hurricane-associated fresh-water flooding is currently the most prominent mortality risk factor, but storm surge is still a major danger, particularly should a major hurricane pass directly over a coastal urban area, which experts predict. Should such a landfall occur, economic losses could exceed $100B instead of the current U.S. annual average of $5B. Hurricane warnings undoubtedly save lives and probably reduce property losses, but well-documented figures do not exist for the costs that they impose on the economy, either through direct expenditures, e.g. for safeguarding fixed assets, evacuating people and mobile property, or through indirect costs, e.g., lost productivity and business opportunities. The proposed research will address this need by analyzing how people process warning information and respond, the costs of these responses and the benefits resulting from averted casualties and damage. It will build on research on hurricanes Andrew, Georges, and Floyd at the applicant's university as well as that of colleagues elsewhere. The proposed work will develop cost of warning estimates for two Florida counties: Miami-Dade and Monroe (the Florida Keys).

December 2007 - The Economic Cost of Evacuations: Tampa Bay Region Pilot Study, FIU (PDF, 13 KB)
December 2007 - Socio-Economic Imapcts, FIU (PDF, 12 KB)
July 2007 - The Economic Cost of Evacuations: Tampa Bay Region Pilot Study, FIU (PDF, 15 KB)
July 2007 - Is it Time to Go Yet? Dynamically Modeling Hurricane Evacuation Decisions, FIU (PDF, 1199 KB)
January 2007 - Enhanced Modeling Of Hurricane Evacuation Behavior, FIU (PDF, 15 KB)
January 2007 - The Economic Cost of Evacuations: Tampa Bay Region Pilot Study, FIU (PDF, 17 KB)
April 2006 - Cost of Hurricane Warnings, FIU (PDF, 22 KB)
Annual Progress Report - Cost of Hurricane Warnings, FIU (PDF, 33 KB)
July 2005 - Cost of Hurricane Warnings, FIU (PDF, 26 KB)

Title: Cost of Hurricane Warnings
Contributors: Florida A&M University (Michael Thomas, David Letson)
NOAA Facilitations: Rodney Weiher
Objective: While economic losses to property from hurricanes are potentially staggering, the benefit of improved hurricane forecasting is not necessarily limited to assisting households better prepare their property for an impending storm. An impending hurricane forces these household to decide between two choices. The first is a costly choice of evacuating and driving to a safe shelter or even an entirely different region of the state to avoid the disutility of the storm experience with certainty. The alternative of remaining with their property, but possibly bearing the full brunt of the storm, may be less costly but is more risky. The decision to evacuate is largely driven by a person's expected disutility of being hit by the approaching hurricane; the product of their willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid this disruptive experience and their perceived change of actually being struck. Improving the predictive power of hurricane forecasting models would improve the information critical to households considering an evacuation and likely provide marginal benefits to these households. This project will consider two methods for evaluating forecasting attributes. The first method will evaluate the relative importance of the multiple forecast attributes by conducting a conjoint analysis, while the second method will evaluate the marginal benefit of more precise five day tracking maps using a discrete choice random utility model.

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Weather Networks

Title: Development of a Florida Mesoscale Weather Station Network - Phase I: Design, Data Assimilation and Research Models
Contributors: University of North Florida (J. David Lambert, Patrick Welsh)
NOAA Facilitators: Mark Powell and Jack Beven
Objective: The primary goal of this research project is to develop a Mesoscale Weather Data Network for Florida that will provide the reliable, real-time, high-resolution weather and storm surge level datasets necessary for computer modeling of hurricane impacts within Florida. Real-time mesoscale weather forecast and storm surge models have the potential to greatly improve the prediction of the spatial distribution of hurricane associated wind, flood and storm surge impacts. This information could also help emergency managers mitigate these impacts through more effective preparedness efforts and evacuation operations.

December 2007 - Weather Networks, UNF (PDF, 20 KB)
July 2007 - Weather Networks, UNF (PDF, 21 KB)
January 2007 - Weather Networks, UNF (PDF, 21 KB)
April 2006 - Weather Networks, UNF (PDF, 20 KB)
Annual Progress Report - Weather Networks, UNF (PDF, 28 KB)
October 2005 - Weather Networks, UNF (PDF, 17 KB)
July 2005 - Weather Networks, UNF (PDF, 18 KB)
April 2005 - Weather Networks, UNF (PDF, 82 KB)
January 2005 - Weather Networks, UNF (PDF, 61 KB)

Title: Development of a Florida Coastal Neural Network model to increase water level data"
Contributors: Florida A&M University (Wenrui Huang)
NOAA Facilitators: Russell Jackson
Objective: To develop a Florida Coastal Neural Network (FL_CNN) Model to establish quantitative relationship between short-term water level measurements at local stations and long-term water measurements at NOAA regional stations. Using water levels at NOAA regional (large-scale) stations, the neural network model can be used to derive reliable long-term historical water level data at local stations along Florida coast.

July 2007 - Weather Networks, FAMU (PDF, 496 KB)
January 2007 - Weather Networks, FAMU (PDF, 132 KB)
April 2006 - Weather Networks, FAMU (PDF, 15 KB)
Annual Progress Report - Weather Networks, FAMU (PDF, 108 KB)
October 2005 - Weather Networks, FAMU (PDF, 16 KB)
July 2005 - Weather Networks, FAMU (PDF, 16 KB)
April 2005 - Weather Networks, FAMU (PDF, 82 KB)
January 2005 - Weather Networks, FAMU (PDF, 86 KB)

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Coastal Vulnerability

Title: Coastal Vulnerability Characterization through Erosion Rate Analysis and
Volunteer Observations (STORM Project)
Contributors: Florida International University (Stephen Leatherman, Quin Robertson)
NOAA Facilitators: Russell Jackson, Brian Jarvinan, John Proni
Objective: Coastal erosion is classified in terms of time span into long-term trend and short-term changes caused by storms, such as hurricanes and seasonal fluctuations. Reliable long-term coastal change information can be obtained from NOAA "T" sheets, which show shoreline positions back to the mid-1800s. Dr. Stephen Leatherman, will lead a team to analyze the shoreline position data set, focusing on Florida and other selected U. S. East Coast barrier beaches. The second approach to this coastal vulnerability research will involve collecting data at selected beaches in Florida by volunteers through the STORM (Storm Tracking Observational Reporting Mission) Project. This coastal vulnerability characterization will involve both short-term field observations obtained by trained volunteers and analysis of long-term shoreline positions available from a compilation of NOAA "T" sheets by CSC as well as other shoreline data from kinematic GPS and LIDAR surveys from the Metric Mapping data set and the NASA/NOAA/USGS LIDAR data.

December 2007 - Coastal Vulnerability, FIU (PDF, 21 KB)
July 2007 - Coastal Vulnerability, FIU (PDF, 22 KB)
January 2007 - Coastal Vulnerability, FIU (PDF, 325 KB)
April 2006 - Coastal Vulnerability, FIU (PDF, 68 KB)
Annual Progress Report -Coastal Vulnerability, FIU (PDF, 72 KB)
October 2005 - Coastal Vulnerability, FIU (PDF, 59 KB)
July 2005 - Coastal Vulnerability, FIU (PDF, 57 KB)
April 2005 - Coastal Vulnerability, FIU (PDF, 80 KB)
January 2005 - Coastal Vulnerability, FIU (PDF, 78 KB)

Title: Living on the Edge: Building Post-Disaster Hurricane Resiliency Through Community Assessment and Informed Rebuilding
Contributors: Florida Atlantic University (Jim Murley, Ana Puszkin-Chevlin)
NOAA Facilitators: Russell Jackson
Objective: The objective of this research is to compile an environmental, land-use and socio-economic profile of Treasure Coast barrier islands in order to better understand their relationship to the region, development trends, and their vulnerability to hurricane and erosion hazards.

December 2007 - Coastal Vulnerability, FAU (PDF, 18 KB)
July 2007 - Coastal Vulnerability, FAU (PDF, 20 KB)
January 2007 - Coastal Vulnerability, FAU (PDF, 20 KB)
April 2006 - Coastal Vulnerability, FAU (PDF, 18 KB)
Annual Progress Report - Coastal Vulnerability, FAU (PDF, 33 KB)
October 2005 - Coastal Vulnerability, FAU (PDF, 17 KB)
July 2005 - Coastal Vulnerability, FAU (PDF, 20 KB)
April 2005 - Coastal Vulnerability, FAU (PDF, 76 KB)
January 2005 - Coastal Vulnerability, FAU (PDF, 75 KB)

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Storm Surge

Title: Development of the Method and Geodatabase for Assessing Storm Surge Models
Contributors: Florida International University (Keqi Zhang, Chengyou Xiao)
NOAA Facilitators: Brian Jarvinen and Will Shaffer
Objective: It is proposed to build a geodatabase in a GIS for storm surge model evaluation that includes wind field, bathymetry, land topography, field-measured high water marks and debris lines, and tide gauge records from selected hurricane landfalls. Field observations and related wind field, bathymetry, and topography data for Hurricanes Donna (1960), Betsy (1965), Camille (1969), Frederic (1979), Hugo (1989), Andrew (1992), Opal (1995), and Isabel (2003) will be digitized, converted, and imported into the geodatabase. We also propose to evaluate three storm surge models including SLOSH, ADCIRC, and International Hurricane Research Center's model by both theoretical analysis, and comparison of model results with field observations. The geodatabase and related tools, model evaluation procedure, and results will be available through the Internet. The model evaluation procedure and results will assist NOAA to enhance the SLOSH model, and use new high-resolution storm surge models appropriately. The proposed research will enable the scientific and government use of existing and newly developed models to better predict and mitigate storm surge hazards.

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LIDAR

Title: Improving Storm Surge Simulation and Prediction Using High-resolution Airborne LIDAR Measurements
Contributors: Florida International University (Keqi Zhang)
University of Florida (Clint Slatton, Bill Carter, Ramesh Shrestha)
NOAA Facilitators: Brian Jarvinen and Will Shaffer
Objective: NOAA has developed the numerical model-SLOSH (Sea, Lake, Overland Surges from Hurricanes) for predicting storm surge, but lack of sophisticated automatic terrain classification algorithms limits the use of LIDAR data by the SLOSH model. The objectives of this proposed research are (1) to develop automatic algorithms to classify ground and non-ground coastal LIDAR measurements at the point level, (2) to develop algorithms to extract special features which have large effect on storm surge flooding, (3) to investigate the utility of the LIDAR system in surveying extreme shallow-water bathymetry with depth less than 5 meters, (4) to fuse coastal area topographic and bathymetric data sets of dissimilar resolutions, and (5) to develop a tool to facilitate the NOAA storm surge model to ingest the DTM and special features from LIDAR surveys. The developed algorithms will be applied to various landcovers from both natural and developed areas in south Florida to examine their adaptive capability. The classification parameters used for each type of landscapes, test data set, and results will be documented and made available to NOAA. The algorithms will provide useful tools to analyze LIDAR data and derive accurate information to simulate storm surge hazards at coastal zones.

July 2007 - LIDAR, FIU (PDF, 218 KB)
July 2007 - LIDAR, UF (PDF, 45 KB)
January 2007 - LIDAR, FIU (PDF, 624 KB)
January 2007 - LIDAR, UF (PDF, 504 KB)
April 2006 - LIDAR, FIU (PDF, 691 KB)
April 2006 - LIDAR, UF (PDF, 32 KB)
Annual Progress Report - LIDAR, FIU (PDF, 68 KB)
Annual Progress Report - LIDAR, UF (PDF, 713 KB)
October 2005 - LIDAR, FIU (PDF, 319 KB)
October 2005 - LIDAR, UF (PDF, 100 KB)
July 2005 - LIDAR, FIU (PDF, 1298 KB)
July 2005 - LIDAR, UF (PDF, 667 KB)
April 2005 - LIDAR, FIU (PDF, 458 KB)
April 2005 - LIDAR, UF (PDF, 105 KB)
January 2005 - LIDAR, FIU (PDF, 2077 KB)
January 2005 - LIDAR, UF (PDF, 377 KB)

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Simulation and Visualization

Title: Process Modeling, Simulation and Animation
Contributors: University of Central Florida (J. Peter Kincaid)
NOAA Facilitators: Stephen Baig
Objective: The SUS Hurricane Alliance program has produced one of the largest high-resolution terrain data bases currently existing. Initial demonstrations regarding the use of this database (covering a substantial area of coastal SE Florida) suggests its value for a number of applications. The challenge of the current project is to further develop process modeling, simulation and animations that will illustrate hurricane effects in an engaging, accurate and easily understood fashion. The University of Central Florida proposes to work with Florida International University during the first year of a multi-year project to make use of their current high resolution data base to: (1) improve storm surge visualization (a promising project already underway at FIU), (2) depict flood and wind damage for a variety of structures and environmental conditions, and (3) develop procedures and algorithms for further automating and facilitating the creation of these visualizations.

Title: An Interactive 3D Visualization and Animation System for Hurricane Impacts
Contributors: Florida International University (Shu-Ching Chen, Keqi Zhang)
NOAA Facilitators: Ed Rappaport
Objectives: Much of the damage in recent storms and hurricanes was caused by inland and coastal fresh water flooding associated with the storms. Due to the lack of good communication of storm surge information to the public, the coastal residents living in the storm's way often overlook their vulnerability and choose not to evacuate, while some residents over-evacuate, hampering the timely evacuation and increasing the risk of drowning thousands of people. This research proposes to develop a 3D visualization and animation environment that is used to convey the results of the storm surge models to the coastal residents in a visual way that people can better understand and appreciate the flooding impact. This system will also help the emergency managers to educate the coastal residents about the potential danger caused by storm surges and thus to facilitate the evacuation process and reduce the disaster costs. Two major tasks involved for this project include data assimilation and representation for a 3D visualization environment and the creation of an interactive 3D environment.

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Surface Wind

Title: Ground Level Hurricane Wind Characteristics in Real Time
Contributors: University of Florida (Kurt Gurley, Forrest Masters)
Florida International University (Arindam Gan Chowdhury, Ping Zhu)
NOAA Facilitators: Mark Powell and James Franklin
Objectives: The first objective of the proposed research is to acquire in-field ground-level wind velocity data from hurricanes striking the coastal United States. This data will be provided in real-time to NOAA researchers from at least five independent portable towers deployed along the coast and inland near the projected storm landfall location. The instrumentation on these towers provide high-fidelity wind velocity time histories at five and ten-meter elevations, as well as barometric pressure, temperature, humidity and rainfall. On-site analysis of the data also provides surface roughness estimates for the terrain surrounding the towers. The second objective is to characterize the turbulent wind field over a variety of coastal and inland terrains. The results of the study will provide insight into the effects of terrain on sustained wind speeds and peak gusts, and calibrate this terrain-dependent ground-level wind behavior to upper level observations.

December 2007 - Surface Wind, FIU (PDF, 22 KB)
December 2007 - Surface Wind, UF (PDF, 23 KB)
July 2007 - Surface Wind, UF&FIU (PDF, 21 KB)
January 2007 - Surface Wind, UF&FIU (PDF, 21 KB)
April 2006 - Surface Wind, UF&FIU (PDF, 23 KB)
Annual Progress Report - Surface Wind, UF&FIU (PDF, 25 KB)
October 2005 - Surface Wind, UF&FIU (PDF, 11 KB)
July 2005 - Surface Wind, UF&FIU (PDF, 11 KB)
April 2005 - Surface Wind, UF&FIU (PDF, 74 KB)
January 2005 - Surface Wind, UF&FIU (PDF, 74 KB)

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Understanding the Structure and Improved Prediction of Hurricanes

Title: Understanding the Structure and Improved Prediction of Hurricanes
Contributors: Florida State University (Robert Ellingson, T. N. Krishnamurti, Xiaolei Zou)
Florida International University (Ping Zhu)
NOAA Facilitators: Richard Pasch and John Gamache
Objectives: Land falling tropical cyclones - hurricanes and tropical storms - place the citizens of the United States in harms way and often cause billions of dollars of damage when they occur. The injuries and a large portion of the damage can be avoided - mitigated - by advance preparation and by better, detailed simulations and predictions of the intensity and track of such storms. This project builds on the past, albeit limited success, of the faculty at FSU in hurricane prediction and the refinement of mitigation strategies. In particular, this project will provide improved forecasts for hurricane tracks, intensity, landfall (position and timing) and resulting rainfall using the FSU multimodel superensemble approach. The proposal addresses research and real time forecasts from the suite of models towards its dissemination to the National Hurricane Center and to the Florida Hurricane Mitigation Alliance. The FSU multimodel superensemble, a very powerful algorithm for such predictions, is a research and operational package that includes several major component tasks such as: collection of data sets from the World Weather Watch, satellites and the meso-scale surveillance of landfalling hurricanes, a state-of-the-art data assimilation on the meso-scale, the execution of a number of FSU model forecasts, collection of real-time external forecasts from the participating world community, construction of the components of the superensemble, and the forecast dissemination.

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Ecological Impacts

Title: Quantifying Ecological and Economic Impacts of Tropical Cyclones on Coral Reefs and Coastal Water Quality in South Florida
Contributors: University of South Florida (Thomas Mason, Pamela Muller)
NOAA Facilitators: Peter Ortner, Jim Hendee, John Proni
Objectives: The 1990 Sanctuary Act required the US EPA and the State of Florida to implement a Water-Quality Protection Program, and the 1998 Executive Order on Coral Reef Protection directed the US Coral Reef Task Force to inventory, monitor and identify major causes and consequences of reef-ecosystem degradation worldwide. Reefs and coastal waters of South Florida, including those of Biscayne National Park (BNP), are vital habitats and nurseries for marine species, as well as natural breakwaters that protect against coastal erosion. Tourism, recreation and fishing associated with coral reefs are fundamental to the economy of South Florida. While tropical cyclones are natural processes, their impacts on coastal waters are greatly influenced by anthropogenic factors. Objectives under this project include 1) Characterize size, extent and longevity of storm plumes generated by tropical cyclones reaching South Florida over the past 20 years using satellite-acquired imagery, 2) Characterize potential pollutants in storm plumes generated by South Florida hurricanes, based upon land use in the watershed, data from point and non-point sources to Biscayne Bay, 3) Characterize possible responses of key benthic resources (e.g., stony corals and seagrass) to physical impacts associated with winds, waves, and storm surge, and to changes in water quality including turbidity and pollutants and 4) Identify specific laboratory and field experiments required to improve predictions.

December 2007 - Ecological Impacts,USF (PDF, 21 KB)
July 2007 - Ecological Impacts,USF (PDF, 21 KB)
January 2007 - Ecological Impacts,USF (PDF, 19 KB)
April 2006 - Ecological Impacts,USF (PDF, 17 KB)
Annual Progress Report - Ecological Impacts,USF (PDF, 17 KB)
October 2005 - Ecological Impacts,USF (PDF, 20 KB)
July 2005 - Ecological Impacts,USF (PDF, 22 KB)
April 2005 - Ecological Impacts,USF (PDF, 83 KB)
January 2005 - Ecological Impacts,USF (PDF, 81 KB)

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